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A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the world could miss out on a target of 11,000 GW of global renewables capacity by the end of the decade, as agreed at COP28. It also predicts that solar will become the world’s largest source of installed renewable capacity, surpassing hydropower.
The COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap, says only 14 of the 194 National Determined Contributions (NDCs) explicitly lay out 2030 targets for renewables capacity. The commitments equate to 1,300 GW of renewables by 2030 – 12% of the 11,000 GW required to meet the global tripling objective set at COP28 in Dubai. China accounts for almost 90% of this NDC total, having explicitly set a goal of 1,200 GW of wind and solar by the end of the decade.
The IEA reported that governments’ domestic ambitions for renewables surpass NDCs. An analysis of policies, plans, and estimates of almost 150 countries revealed an intention to install nearly 8,000 GW of renewables worldwide by 2030, representing 70% of the required amount to achieve the tripling goal by 2030.
The report said that annual renewable capacity additions have tripled since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. The IEA attributed this to policy support, economies of scale and technological progress.
Solar accounts for half of the future capacity explicitly identified by governments across the world, the IEA said. It predicted that if countries meet their ambitions for 2030, installed solar capacity would surpass hydropower as the world’s largest source of installed renewable capacity.
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